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Intelligence future-gazers look at 2020
(Agencies)
Updated: 2005-01-14 16:09
And now, a look into the future: al-Qaida, out; murky
and scattered new terror cells, in. Hollywood, out; India's "Bollywood" in.
America as sole superpower, out; China and India as world players, in.
At least, that's what U.S. intelligence future-gazers predicted Thursday.
"How we mentally map the world of 2020 will change radically," said the
National Intelligence Council Chairman Robert Hutchings at the release of his
panel's new report, Project 2020. Newly arriving powers "have the potential to
render obsolete the old categories of East and West, North and South."
The unclassified forecasts offer a range of scenarios about the world 15
years out. Officials caution they are not meant to be predictions certain to
come true but rather long-term outlooks designed to stimulate debate at the
start of a new administration, in the works months before US President Bush won.
The council predicts an emergence of new global players — almost certainly
China and India — but whether these new players fit into the world cooperatively
or competitively remains an important uncertainty for the United States.
Council Vice Chairman David Gordon said the changes ahead could be "a very
bumpy ride." Among them, he said, the integration of 1 billion low-paid workers
will cause global shifts in rich and poor countries alike. Changes will be
experienced politically, economically and even culturally, as Korean pop singers
gain international popularity and India's Bollywood movie industry outshines
Hollywood.
"Of course, the United States is in good shape to participate in this world,
but it will be a world that will be much more competitive for us," Gordon said.
Hutchings said this new order will raise the stakes for Arab countries, which
may join in globalization trends or experience further alienation and
humiliation. Terror threats, too, will change.
While radical extremism will continue to grow, the report says al-Qaida is
expected to be superseded by similarly inspired, decentralized groups. Hutchings
said he expects the innovation in terror attacks to come from new elements of
surprise, rather than unconventional weapons.
The groups' members will be tapping technology that provides instant
connections for communications and training, posing a significant intelligence
challenge to organizations including the CIA.
"Our greatest concern is that terrorists might acquire biological agents or,
less likely, a nuclear device, either of which could cause mass causalities,"
the report said.
The council treads carefully on the success of democratization — an issue
Bush has made the cornerstone of his foreign policy. It predicts democratic
progress in key Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq and Afghanistan, which
may be an example for Muslim and Arab states still ruled by repressive regimes.
However, Russian and Central Asian countries could slip backward, according
to the report.
The National Intelligence Council reports directly to CIA Director Porter
Goss but remains separate from the agency. It is responsible for preparing
National Intelligence Estimates for policy-makers. Although its products are
generally highly classified, significant details have emerged on its overblown
estimate of Iraq's weapons capability.
A team of analysts, consulting with over 1,000 international experts over the
last year, assembled Project 2020, which follows projects 2010 and 2015.
In a 120-page glossy book, the council also offers four fictional, but
possible, scenarios to illustrate points:
-- In a letter, the head of the World Economic Forum explains to a former
Federal Reserve chairman how China and India are reshaping globalization trends.
A sign of shifting power centers, the once Western-dominated club, which meets
annually in Davos, Switzerland, has ceded to demands that the meeting be held in
Asia every other year. "To be frank, America is no longer quite the engine it
used to be," the forum's head writes. "Instead, the markets are now oriented
eastwards."
-- In a private diary entry, the U.N. secretary-general
writes of how U.S. dominance has survived radical global change and remains "the
bedrock of the world order." But the scenario suggests that international
organizations largely are not sharing the burden. "I get the feeling that a lot
of Americans are getting tired of playing the world's policeman," she writes.
-- The grandson of Osama bin Laden writes a letter to another relative about
his frustrations with an Islamic leader who has taken over an unnamed Middle
Eastern country. While the core of al-Qaida is out of business, its remnants are
tapping confusion and turmoil in the Middle East, cutting deals with local
warlords who are leaving al-Qaida free to operate as it sees fit. "I'm hopeful,"
the grandson writes.
-- In a series of text messages, illegal arms dealers reveal their
worries about an increasingly Orwellian world, with heightened intrusiveness and
monitoring by countries spooked by terror attacks. "I worry about the chip," one
dealer says.
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